Naegele thought each pregnancy lasted 266 days from conception to birth. Naegele’s Rule for this calculation was invented in the 1800s. The date of the person’s last period is the standard method of calculation, but it has some problems. Each of these gives an estimated due date for the end of the pregnancy. There are three main ways to calculate how pregnant someone is - date of last period, conception date, or measurements from an ultrasound scan. Calculating due dates: Which method is most accurate? So it can be hard to say how long a pregnancy would have continued for naturally - the long tail of the distribution is being chopped off a bit earlier. Today it’s more like 29% of births - a big increase! And inductions before or on the due date are getting more common. In 1990 (the first year in which it’s included in the national data) fewer than 10% of births followed induction. This data is influenced by an increase in medical inductions since the 90s. Both Allen Downey’s and some of my dashboard’s graphs are based on US data - the National Survey of Family Growth. Data in action! Induction and overdue babies ⏰īut it’s hard to even gather accurate data these days! Medical induction of labour has actually changed the average length of pregnancies in the USA. Not a moment too soon - her mother landed on Thursday afternoon, and the baby arrived on Saturday night. She took a look at the statistics and moved her mother’s flight up by ten days. Emily Oster recounts the story of her friend Heather, expecting her second baby, whose plan was to fly her mother in to help take care of baby number one while she was in hospital. Another plot from my dashboard: effacement (cervical change) vs the chance of giving birth before your due date.
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